Poland’s Coal Share Falls to 52.7%, Capacity Lingers

In June, Poland’s electricity ledger recorded a first: renewables generated more power than coal over a full month. The shift is visible in the annual numbers too. Coal supplied 52.7% of Polish electricity in 2025, down from 72.5% in 2021, while renewables reached 31.4%.

The replacement is not a clean one-for-one swap. Gas recorded the largest increase in generation share in both 2024 and 2025. Last year, Poland produced 24.4 TWh from gas, compared with 23.8 TWh from onshore wind and 20.3 TWh from solar. The country is cutting coal’s role in electricity, but its new mix is renewables plus gas rather than renewables alone.

That leaves a distinction many power systems hide: energy is the electricity produced over time, while capacity is the dependable power available during the hardest hours. A coal plant can run fewer hours, lose market share and become less attractive as an energy producer while still being kept available as insurance. Poland’s September 2025 supplementary auction contracted 7.58 GW of capacity obligations for delivery in 2026. High-emitting plants above 550 kg of CO₂ per MWh could participate under a special derogation that expires at the end of 2028.

The system is already showing the cost of moving at different speeds. Renewable generation grew enough in 2025 for Poland to curtail 1.4 TWh, twice the 2024 amount, mostly for balancing rather than physical grid congestion. On sunny days, the system can have more low-cost electricity than it can absorb; at other times, it still wants coal standing by. Baltic Power, Poland’s first offshore wind farm, delivered electricity to the grid in July 2026 and is expected to generate roughly 4 TWh annually once fully commissioned.

So what changes for Poland’s households, industry and grid operators? The next buildout is not just another solar farm. It is a coordinated layer of transmission, interconnection, batteries, flexible demand, district heating and smart electric-vehicle charging that can move electricity across time and geography. The IEA expects Polish renewable generation to grow around 13% annually through 2030, overtake coal on an annual basis in 2028 and reach about 53% of generation by 2030. Coal generation is expected to fall roughly 11% a year, while gas continues growing.