US renewable capacity could overtake natural gas by 2027

A US power milestone is coming into view on the capacity charts: by summer 2027, renewable energy could have more installed generating capacity than natural gas. The forecast depends on solar, wind and a quieter contributor spread across rooftops and smaller systems—small-scale solar—which is not included in the Energy Information Administration’s 12-month projection.

The underlying shift is already visible in the electricity produced. Renewables generated 10.9% more electricity in the first half of 2026 than during the same period a year earlier. Utility-scale solar rose 21.6%, small-scale solar 13.0%, hydropower 10.1% and wind 6.5%. Together, wind and solar supplied 22.3% of US electricity, while all renewables—including biomass and geothermal—reached 30.2%.

The next wave is substantial. EIA projects 54,125.7 MW of new utility-scale renewable capacity by June 30, 2027: 43,649.2 MW from solar, 10,216.8 MW from wind and 259.7 MW from other renewables. It also expects battery storage to add 22,788.4 MW, bringing total battery storage capacity to 74,454.1 MW. Fossil-fuel capacity, by contrast, is projected to decline by 3,143.4 MW, with no new nuclear capacity in the forecast.

Small-scale solar supplies the uncertainty—and potentially the decisive margin. Its installed capacity grew by 6,492.0 MW between July 1, 2025, and June 30, 2026, reaching 62,364.7 MW. Because EIA offers no forecast for the next year, the SUN DAY Campaign assumes at least 6,000 MW more could arrive. Under that assumption, renewable capacity would reach about 546,219.4 MW, compared with 518,286.3 MW for natural gas.

So what changes in practical terms? The US would have more installed renewable generating capacity than natural gas by early summer 2027, while batteries add storage capacity alongside that expansion. It would mark a shift in the structure of the power fleet, not a claim that renewables produce electricity continuously or that every projected project will be completed.

The longer trend gives the forecast weight, but not certainty. Renewable electricity’s share has risen from 16.9% at the end of June 2016 to 30.2% in 2026, while utility-scale battery storage grew from too little for EIA to report in 2016 to 51,665.7 MW by the end of June 2026. The capacity crossing remains a projection: the utility-scale figures come from EIA, while the small-scale solar addition that pushes renewables past gas is an assumption by the SUN DAY Campaign.