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每卖出三辆乘用车，现在就有两辆是新能源车。据乘联分会（中国乘用车市场的主要统计机构）的数据，2026年9月，燃油车在中国市场的销售占比首次跌破三分之一，新能源车整体渗透率攀升至67%，创下历史新高。十年前，这一比例还不足5%。
Two out of every three passenger cars sold now are new energy vehicles. According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), the main statistics body for China's passenger car market, fuel cars fell below one-third of sales in China for the first time in September 2026, while the overall penetration rate of new energy vehicles climbed to 67%, a record high. A decade ago, the figure was still below 5%.
这个变化的速度超出了行业此前的普遍预期。特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克转发了能源数据机构Ember的分析师尼古拉斯·富尔格姆（Nicolas Fulghum）的帖子，并评论称：“中国对石油的依赖正在快速下降。”富尔格姆的帖子还显示，9月中国纯电动汽车的市场份额已接近半数，达到47.3%。
The pace of the shift has outpaced the industry's earlier expectations. Tesla CEO Elon Musk reposted a post by Nicolas Fulghum, an analyst at energy data firm Ember, and commented: “China's dependence on oil is falling rapidly.” Fulghum's post also showed that battery-electric vehicles reached nearly half of China's market in September, at 47.3%.
推动这一变化的，是产品、政策和消费三股力量。在产品端，10万元级别的新能源车型已能做到400公里以上续航，15万元级别车型普遍搭载高阶智能驾驶辅助系统，同价位燃油车在配置和使用成本上的优势正在消失。在政策端，新能源汽车购置税减免（即购车时免缴的一项税）延续至2027年底，各地新能源车牌照政策持续宽松，而部分城市对燃油车的限购、限行政策并未放松。在消费端，90后、00后购车者更看重智能化体验，多家品牌授权销售店（即4S店）的数据显示，进店询问智能驾驶和车机系统的顾客，远多于询问发动机参数的顾客。
Three forces are driving the change: products, policy and consumers. On the product side, new energy models priced around 100,000 yuan can now deliver more than 400 km of range, and models priced around 150,000 yuan commonly come with advanced driver-assistance systems, so fuel cars' advantages in equipment and running costs at the same price point are disappearing. On the policy side, the purchase tax exemption for new energy vehicles (a tax that buyers are exempt from paying when they buy a car) has been extended through the end of 2027, and local license plate policies for new energy vehicles continue to ease, while some cities have not relaxed purchase restrictions and traffic controls on fuel cars. On the consumer side, buyers born in the 1990s and 2000s place more weight on smart features, and data from several brands' authorized dealerships (4S stores) show that far more customers ask about intelligent driving and in-car systems than about engine specifications.
数字也有另一面。按生产口径，2026年1至9月新能源车占比为53%，而非销售口径的67%，两组数字不能直接相加比较。同期汽车总产量为2337万台，同比下降4%，其中燃油车产量同比下降17%。合资品牌受冲击最重，大众、丰田、本田等的燃油车销量同比降幅普遍超过20%，部分品牌在华产能利用率已降至50以下。自主品牌中，比亚迪、吉利、奇瑞等提前布局的企业份额持续提升，转型较慢的则生存空间被挤压。
The numbers have another side. Measured by production, new energy vehicles accounted for 53% of output from January to September 2026, compared with the 67% share of sales, and the two sets of figures cannot be directly compared. Total car production over the same period was 23.37 million units, down 4% year on year, with fuel car output down 17%. Joint-venture brands have been hit hardest: fuel car sales at Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda and others generally fell by more than 20% year on year, and some brands' capacity utilization in China has dropped below 50. Among domestic brands, companies that moved early, such as BYD, Geely and Chery, have continued to gain share, while slower transformers face squeezed room to survive.
对普通购车者来说，这意味着同样的预算里，新能源车已经是更常见的选择；对传统燃油车企来说，转型已从选择题变成生存题。但乘联分会负责人崔东树提醒，燃油车不会立即消失：在长途出行、低温环境、充电基础设施不完善的地区，燃油车仍有不可替代的优势，新能源渗透率的提升速度可能逐渐放缓。
For ordinary car buyers, this means that within the same budget, a new energy vehicle is now the more common choice. For traditional carmakers, transformation has moved from a matter of choice to a matter of survival. But Cui Dongshu, an official at the CPCA, cautions that fuel cars will not disappear immediately. In long-distance travel, in cold climates and in areas with incomplete charging infrastructure, fuel cars still hold advantages that cannot be replaced, and the pace of new energy penetration growth may gradually slow.